Aerospace Insight Blog

Proponents of airport expansion in SE England have felt bolstered by a new report from the CAA this week on the future of aviation and air traffic capacity issues in the UK. But should they be that confident?

The Government ruling out expansion at Heathrow has increased attractiveness of a new Thames Airport.

Headlines like ‘Regulator adds thrust to airport capacity debate’ seemed to indicate that the UK’s independent aviation regulator had suddenly taken sides and confirmed there was a need for a new airport or runways in UK. However a closer reading of its report, ‘Aviation Policy for the Future’ showed that the CAA’s observation were a lot more subtle and nuanced.

It is true that it did point out the obvious (namely that there is a capacity issue, and that  without action, growth in the long-term will suffer) but it stopped short of recommending a particular solution – whether it be a third runway at Heathrow, Gatwick expansion or the much-hyped ‘Boris International’ airport concept on the Thames – now given extra weight thanks to a proposal from Lord Foster, the architect behind other reclaimed airport projects.

However – it did deal a blow to hopes that regional airports might take up the slack – noting that the UK regional airports are unlikely to provide the ‘hub & spoke system’ needed for a true hub in the future.

But missed by most of the commentators was a hint that given the Single European Sky, perhaps the solution could be found in networked hubs with other European countries. This in fact already happens to some extent. The UK, for example, because of its geographic location is the natural entry/exit point to  North America. Similarly (and because of historic cultural ties as well) Spain’s Madrid airport has become the European gateway to South America. Indeed, the decline in domestic services at Heathrow means already that those from the north of the country are in some cases finding it easier to hub and connect using continental hubs.

Says the report: “The UK’s geographical position on the North-West of Europe means that airlines operating out of London can offer competitive journey times for connections to North America compared to other European hubs. Geography, and other factors such as economic, historical and cultural links, would suggest that other European airports might represent more convenient transfer points for routes to other world regions such as Asia, Africa and South America.”

It goes on: “There may therefore be merit in considering a network approach in order to ensure connections for UK regional consumers to a variety of hubs. Such an approach would better take account of the cross-border nature of some of the challenges facing UK aviation in meeting the needs of consumers and would also be consistent with the joined-up approach taken with the Single European Sky airspace initiative.”

The CAA, then seems to be saying that one solution (which would not involve building new airports or runways) would be to use Europe’s existing hubs more efficiently, so that passengers heading East or West would land at the nearest main hub within Europe, before transiting (by air or train).

However, two problems emerge with this. Firstly could the political compromise be found for Heathrow to swap its Singapore services for say Frankfurt’s New York slots? Who would get the most benefit from these trades? Especially given the fastest-growing markets are now to the east of Europe in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East.

Second, what happens to the airports in the middle? This seems to indicate that a Europe with a peripheral ring of mega hubs would be the ideal solution, yet in reality the biggest hubs, London, Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt are situated geographically quite close. Would this create new megahubs on the outskirts of Europe?

Finally it could be argued that the northern countries (such as the UK) might also have better access to the Far East (Hong Kong for example) because of new extended ETOPS regulations which will allow long-range twins to forge routes over the north pole, cutting flight times by going direct. The world is, after all, a sphere.

That said, the report by the CAA, and its warnings over future growth, has only intensified the debate further on the future of UK airport, capacity issues and the need for some sort of long-term aviation strategy.